Ted Cruz Tweet Markets

Polystrike provides accurate and low-latency tracking for Polymarket’s Ted Cruz tweet count markets.

Endpoints

Metadata Overview

GET /meta/cruz

Public. Returns real-time counters and “Lag Edges” for all active Cruz events.

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1774250948000,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 262360,
      "event_title": "Ted Cruz # posts March 17 - March 24, 2026?",
      "start_ts": 1773964800000,
      "end_ts": 1774569600000,
      "polymarket_xtracker_counter": 67,
      "real_counter": 67,
      "polymarket_ui_counter": 67,
      "settlement_delta": 0,
      "display_delta": 0,
      "internal_delta": 0
    }
  ]
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
event_id	number	Unique ID of the Polymarket event.
event_title	string	Human-readable event title from Polymarket.
image	string	Event image URL from Polymarket.
start_ts / end_ts	number	Event window start/end times (UTC milliseconds).
polymarket_xtracker_counter	number	Settlement oracle count. This is what Polymarket pays out on.
real_counter	number	Polystrike’s real-time count. Faster than the oracle; includes deleted tweet captures.
polymarket_ui_counter	number	Count currently displayed on the Polymarket trading UI.
settlement_delta	number	real_counter − xtracker. Positive = we’re ahead of the oracle.
display_delta	number	real_counter − ui_counter. Positive = UI is showing a stale number.
internal_delta	number	ui_counter − xtracker. Positive = UI is ahead of the oracle.

Predictive Models

GET /prediction/cruz

Public (Limited) / Pro (Full).

• Public: Counters + Market Prices only.
• Pro: Forecasts (p5/p50/p95), Signals (Buy/Sell), and Alpha.

Sample Response (Pro):

{
  "timestamp": 1774250948000,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 262360,
      "seconds_remaining": 115200,
      "sleep_probability": 0.092,
      "forecast": {
        "p5": 75,
        "p50": 89,
        "p95": 105
      },
      "markets": [
        {
          "title": "80-99",
          "model_prob": 0.62,
          "market_price": 0.32,
          "edge": 0.30,
          "signal": "STRONG_BUY"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
forecast.p5/p50/p95	number	Pro Only. Monte Carlo forecast percentiles.
sleep_probability	number	Probability Cruz is currently sleeping.
markets.model_prob	number	Pro Only. Our calculated win probability.
markets.market_price	number	Current “Yes” price on Polymarket.
markets.edge	number	Pro Only. model_prob - market_price.
markets.signal	string	Pro Only. STRONG_BUY, BUY, HOLD, SELL.

EV-Based Signals

GET /signals/cruz

Pro Only. Returns actionable trading signals optimized for Expected Value (EV), with optimal Kelly Criterion bet sizing and Information Asymmetry edge detection.

Query Parameters:

Parameter	Required	Description
bankroll	No	Your bankroll in USD (1-1,000,000). Sizes suggested_bet via Kelly criterion. If omitted, a server default is used.

GET /api/v1/signals/cruz?bankroll=100

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1774250948000,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 262360,
      "event_title": "Ted Cruz # posts March 17 - March 24, 2026?",
      "signals": [
        {
          "bucket": "80-99",
          "token_id": "0x1234...",
          "action": "BUY",
          "model_prob": 0.62,
          "market_price": 0.32,
          "edge": 0.30,
          "ev": 0.938,
          "kelly_fraction": 0.042,
          "suggested_bet": 4.20,
          "confidence": "HIGH",
          "moneyness": 0.95,
          "time_confidence": "MEDIUM",
          "asymmetry_edge": 0,
          "reasons": [
            "Strong signal: 62% prob, +93.8% EV"
          ],
          "bankroll": 100.0
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
bucket	string	Market outcome bucket (e.g., “80-99”).
token_id	string	Polymarket CLOB token ID for trade execution.
action	string	BUY, HOLD, or SKIP.
model_prob	number	Model’s calculated win probability (0-1).
market_price	number	Current market price.
edge	number	model_prob - market_price. Positive = undervalued.
ev	number	Expected value per $1 bet.
kelly_fraction	number	Optimal bet fraction per Kelly Criterion.
suggested_bet	number	Dollar amount based on Kelly + your bankroll.
confidence	string	HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW based on multiple factors.
moneyness	number	How deep p50 falls into bucket (0=edge, 1=center).
time_confidence	string	HIGH (<24h), MEDIUM (24-48h), LOW (>72h).
asymmetry_edge	number	XTracker - UI counter. Positive = UI lagging.
reasons	array	Human-readable explanations for the signal.

Portfolio Analysis

GET /portfolio/cruz

Pro Only. Fetches your open Cruz tweet market positions directly from Polymarket, then overlays our model predictions to tell you where each position stands.

Query Parameters:

Parameter	Required	Description
wallet	Yes	Your Ethereum wallet address (e.g. 0xabc...123)

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1774250948000,
  "data": [
    {
      "wallet": "0xabc...123",
      "event": {
        "id": 262360,
        "title": "Ted Cruz # posts March 17 - March 24, 2026?",
        "end_ts": 1774569600000
      },
      "prediction": {
        "p5": 75,
        "p50": 89,
        "p95": 105,
        "real_counter": 67,
        "seconds_remaining": 115200,
        "velocity_counted_1h": 2.1
      },
      "positions": [
        {
          "event_id": "262360",
          "bucket": "80-99",
          "tokens": 50.0,
          "avg_price": 0.30,
          "cost_basis": 15.00,
          "current_price": 0.32,
          "current_value": 16.00,
          "pnl": 1.00,
          "pnl_percent": 6.67,
          "analysis": {
            "win_probability": 0.62,
            "market_implied": 0.32,
            "edge": 0.30,
            "edge_percent": 93.75,
            "signal": "STRONG_BUY",
            "recommendation": "STRONG_HOLD"
          }
        }
      ],
      "portfolio": {
        "total_positions": 1,
        "total_cost": 15.00,
        "current_value": 16.00,
        "total_pnl": 1.00,
        "total_pnl_percent": 6.67
      }
    }
  ]
}

How It Works

The endpoint has three steps:

1. Fetches your open positions from the Polymarket API using your wallet address
2. Filters to active Cruz tweet markets — positions in other market types are excluded
3. Overlays model predictions for each bucket you hold, computing edge and generating a signal

If no active Cruz events are running, positions will be empty and a message field explains why.

Field Descriptions — prediction

Field	Type	Description
p5 / p50 / p95	number	Monte Carlo forecast percentiles for final tweet count.
real_counter	number	Current real tweet count at time of prediction.
seconds_remaining	number	Seconds until the event closes.
velocity_counted_1h	number	Average counted tweets per hour over the last hour. Useful for projecting how much more is likely before close.

Field Descriptions — positions

Field	Type	Description
bucket	string	The Polymarket outcome bucket you hold (e.g. "80-99").
tokens	number	Number of shares/tokens you hold.
avg_price	number	Your average purchase price per token.
cost_basis	number	Total amount paid for this position.
current_price	number	Current market price per token.
current_value	number	Current mark-to-market value.
pnl	number	Unrealised profit/loss in USDC.
pnl_percent	number	Unrealised PnL as a percentage.

Field Descriptions — analysis

Field	Type	Description
win_probability	number	Model’s estimated probability this bucket wins (0–1).
market_implied	number	Current market price — the crowd’s implied probability.
edge	number	win_probability − market_implied. Positive = model sees more value than the market.
edge_percent	number	Edge expressed as a percentage of the market price.
signal	string	See signal table below.
recommendation	string	See recommendation table below.

Signal Values

The signal field is based on edge_percent:

Signal	Condition	Meaning
STRONG_BUY	edge_percent > 30%	Model sees strong undervaluation — consider adding
BUY	edge_percent > 10%	Clear positive edge exists
HOLD	edge_percent > 0%	Slight edge — worth keeping
AVOID	edge_percent > -10%	Near fair value, slightly unfavourable
SELL	edge_percent ≤ -10%	Model sees meaningful overvaluation — consider exiting

Recommendation Values

The recommendation field is based on raw edge (not percentage):

Recommendation	Condition	Meaning
STRONG_HOLD	edge > 0.20	High absolute edge — hold firmly
HOLD	edge > 0.05	Positive edge — no reason to exit
MONITOR	edge > -0.05	Near fair value — watch closely
CONSIDER_SELLING	edge ≤ -0.05	Model favours exiting this position

Tip

signal and recommendation use different scales. signal is more sensitive (percentage-based) and useful for deciding whether to add. recommendation uses absolute edge and is better for deciding whether to exit.

Error Responses

Status	Condition
400	Wallet address is not a valid Ethereum address (0x + 40 hex chars)
401	Missing or invalid Pro API key
503	Could not reach the Polymarket API to fetch positions

Raw Tweet Stream

GET /meta/cruz/tweets

Public (Masked) / Pro (Full).

• Public: Fixed at the latest 15 tweets. is_counted is null.
• Pro: Custom pagination using limit (max 100) and offset. is_counted (true/false) reveals which tweets count toward resolution.

Query Parameters (Pro Only):

• limit: Number of tweets to return (max 100).
• offset: Number of tweets to skip.

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1774250948000,
  "data": [
    {
      "tweet_id": "1771234567890123456",
      "text": "Great meeting with constituents today...",
      "created_ts": 1774234718000,
      "is_reply": false,
      "is_quote": false,
      "is_retweet": false,
      "is_counted": true
    }
  ],
  "limit": 15,
  "offset": 0
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
tweet_id	string	Twitter status ID.
text	string	Tweet content.
is_counted	boolean|null	Pro Only. Whether tweet counts for resolution. Null for public users.
is_reply / is_quote / is_retweet	boolean	Tweet type flags.
limit / offset	number	Pagination values used for the request.

Model Characteristics

The Cruz prediction model uses the same Monte Carlo simulation approach as the Elon model, but with Cruz-specific parameters:

• Sleep Probability: ~9.2% (calculated from Cruz’s actual tweet gaps)
• Rolling Window: 14-day lookback for velocity estimation
• Bias Correction: Uses Cruz-specific historical event data (when sufficient data available)
• Independence: Completely separate from Elon model - no cross-contamination

Note

Cruz markets have less historical data than Elon markets. Model confidence will improve as more events complete and historical patterns emerge.