API Overview

The Polystrike API is designed for low-latency access to prediction market metadata and signals.

Infrastructure

All endpoints are hosted on high-performance bare-metal servers to ensure maximum uptime and minimal response times.

Base URL: https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1

Data Freshness

Measured on production, 2026-07-29. These are observed numbers, not design targets.

Data	Cadence / latency
Tweet detection (post published → counted)	p50 11.5s, p90 12.6–15.1s, p99 28.2s, worst observed 631s
X timeline poll	1s for `@elonmusk`, 5s for other tracked accounts
Engagement-metric refresh (likes/reposts)	full timeline re-read every 10 min
Deletion confirmation	absent from 2 consecutive re-reads → ~20 min
`real_counter` and the deltas	recomputed as each qualifying post lands
`prediction/` and `signals/` model outputs	60s inside an event’s final 24h, 300s otherwise
`market_price` (Polymarket CLOB order book)	2s poll loop across tracked tokens; it cycles many tokens, so effective per-token resolution is ~40s
XTracker settlement oracle (not ours)	roughly 5 min

Notes that matter when you build against this:

X’s index is the floor. X’s REST timeline needs ~10.8s at minimum to list a new post, and the latency is quantized. We already poll faster than X publishes, so polling harder does not move the median.
Engagement metrics lag by one cycle. Likes and reposts are zero when a post is first seen — it is seconds old. The 10-minute re-read fills in the real values.
A filtered-stream push path exists but is not serving. Measured head-to-head over 4 days it detects at p50 6.3s, ~5.2s faster than the poller. Today it runs as a measurement path and does not write the counters these endpoints read. The poller is retained either way: a push stream cannot observe a deletion.
Latency is not edge. Our own paper testing measured that when a count boundary breaks, the price collapse completes in roughly 2–3 seconds — upstream of both feeds. We are not winning that race and do not market these figures as if we were.

Authentication

Endpoints are either Public (no key needed) or Data (requires X-API-Key header).

Public (Anonymous): Free access to metadata/counters, delayed 30 minutes (freshness: delayed). Rate limited to 100 requests/hour.
Data ($29/mo, $290/yr): live counters, the WebSocket feed, full post archive, counter and price history, bulk parquet. Rate limited to 10,000 requests/hour.

Access Methods

Direct HTTP API (this documentation):

curl -H "X-API-Key: ps_pro_..." https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1/prediction/elon

OpenAPI Specification (for automated discovery):

curl https://polystrike.xyz/openapi.json

The OpenAPI spec provides machine-readable documentation of all endpoints, parameters, authentication schemes, and response types. Use it to:

Generate client libraries in any language
Integrate with AI agents and automated systems
Understand the API structure programmatically

MCP Server (for Claude Desktop users): Natural language access through the Model Context Protocol. See MCP Server Setup for configuration.

To upgrade to Data: pay USDC on Polygon or Base, then submit the tx hash and your email at polystrike.xyz/#waitlist or [email protected]. Keys are issued by hand, usually within a few hours.

Response Format

All responses are standard JSON. Timestamps are UTC Milliseconds.

{
  "timestamp": 1770188662000,
  "data": [ ... ]
}

Rate Limits

Tier	Limit
Anonymous	100 req/hour (by IP)
Pro	10,000 req/hour (by Key)

Feature Comparison by Tier

Below is the exact field visibility for each endpoint.

GET /meta/elon — Public (No Key, Rate Limited)

Field	Anonymous	Pro
`event_id`	✅	✅
`event_title`	✅	✅
`start_ts`	✅	✅
`end_ts`	✅	✅
`polymarket_xtracker_counter`	✅	✅
`real_counter`	✅	✅
`polymarket_ui_counter`	✅	✅
`settlement_delta`	✅	✅
`display_delta`	✅	✅
`internal_delta`	✅	✅

GET /meta/elon/tweets — Public (Rate Limited)

Field	Anonymous	Pro
`tweet_id`	✅	✅
`text`	✅	✅
`created_ts`	✅	✅
`referenced_text`	✅	✅
`referenced_author_id`	✅	✅
`is_reply`	✅	✅
`is_quote`	✅	✅
`is_retweet`	✅	✅
`is_counted`	null	✅

GET /prediction/elon — Public (Rate Limited)

Field	Anonymous	Pro
`event_id`	✅	✅
`event_title`	✅	✅
`polymarket_xtracker_counter`	✅	✅
`polymarket_ui_counter`	✅	✅
`real_counter`	✅	✅
`settlement_delta`	✅	✅
`display_delta`	✅	✅
`internal_delta`	✅	✅
`seconds_remaining`	✅	✅
`markets[].title`	✅	✅
`markets[].market_price`	✅	✅
`sleep_probability`	❌	✅
`velocity_counted_1h`	❌	✅
`velocity_all_1h`	❌	✅
`markets[].model_prob`	❌	✅
`forecast.p5`	❌	✅
`forecast.p50`	❌	✅
`forecast.p95`	❌	✅
`markets[].edge`	❌	✅
`markets[].signal`	❌	✅

Changed 2026-07-23: sleep_probability and the velocity_counted_1h / velocity_all_1h projection inputs moved to Pro (previously free), so a free consumer can no longer reconstruct the model’s late-window projection. Free still gets all counters/deltas, seconds_remaining, and per-bucket market_price.

GET /signals/elon — Pro Only (401 without key)

Optional query parameter: ?bankroll=100 — sizes suggested_bet to your bankroll via Kelly criterion.

Field	Anonymous	Pro
`event_id`	❌ 401	✅
`event_title`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].bucket`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].action`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].model_prob`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].market_price`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].edge`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].ev`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].kelly_fraction`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].suggested_bet`	❌ 401	✅ (sized to `?bankroll` if provided)
`signals[].confidence`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].moneyness`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].time_confidence`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].asymmetry_edge`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].reasons`	❌ 401	✅
`signals[].bankroll`	❌ 401	✅

GET /portfolio/elon?wallet=0x… — Pro Only (401 without key)

Field	Anonymous	Pro
`wallet`	❌ 401	✅
`event.id`	❌ 401	✅
`event.title`	❌ 401	✅
`event.end_ts`	❌ 401	✅
`prediction.p5` / `p50` / `p95`	❌ 401	✅
`prediction.real_counter`	❌ 401	✅
`prediction.seconds_remaining`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].event_id`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].bucket`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].tokens`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].avg_price`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].cost_basis`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].current_price`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].current_value`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].pnl`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].pnl_percent`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.win_probability`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.market_implied`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.edge`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.edge_percent`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.signal`	❌ 401	✅
`positions[].analysis.recommendation`	❌ 401	✅
`portfolio.total_positions`	❌ 401	✅
`portfolio.total_cost`	❌ 401	✅
`portfolio.current_value`	❌ 401	✅
`portfolio.total_pnl`	❌ 401	✅
`portfolio.total_pnl_percent`	❌ 401	✅