Elon Musk Tweet Markets

Polystrike provides the most accurate and low-latency tracking for Polymarket’s Elon Musk tweet count markets.

Endpoints

Metadata Overview

GET /meta/elon

Public. Returns real-time counters and “Lag Edges” for all active Elon events.

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1771246725679,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 206602,
      "event_title": "Elon Musk # tweets February 14 - February 16, 2026?",
      "start_ts": 1771088400000,
      "end_ts": 1771261200000,
      "polymarket_xtracker_counter": 65,
      "real_counter": 68,
      "polymarket_ui_counter": 65,
      "settlement_delta": 3,
      "display_delta": 3,
      "internal_delta": 0
    }
  ]
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
`event_id`	number	Unique ID of the Polymarket event.
`event_title`	string	Human-readable event title from Polymarket.
`image`	string	Event image URL from Polymarket.
`start_ts` / `end_ts`	number	Event window start/end times (UTC milliseconds).
`polymarket_xtracker_counter`	number	Settlement oracle count. This is what Polymarket pays out on.
`real_counter`	number	Polystrike’s real-time count. Faster than the oracle; includes deleted tweet captures.
`polymarket_ui_counter`	number	Count currently displayed on the Polymarket trading UI.
`settlement_delta`	number	`real_counter − xtracker`. Positive = we’re ahead of the oracle.
`display_delta`	number	`real_counter − ui_counter`. Positive = UI is showing a stale number.
`internal_delta`	number	`ui_counter − xtracker`. Positive = UI is ahead of the oracle.

Predictive Models

GET /prediction/elon

Public (Limited) / Pro (Full).

Public: Counters + Market Prices only.
Pro: Forecasts (p5/p50/p95), Signals (Buy/Sell), and Alpha.

Sample Response (Pro):

{
  "timestamp": 1771246734873,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 206602,
      "seconds_remaining": 14528,
      "sleep_probability": 0.016,
      "forecast": {
        "p5": 68,
        "p50": 68,
        "p95": 69
      },
      "markets": [
        {
          "title": "65-89",
          "model_prob": 1.0,
          "market_price": 0.945,
          "edge": 0.055,
          "signal": "SLIGHT_BUY"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
`forecast.p5/p50/p95`	number	Pro Only. Monte Carlo forecast percentiles.
`sleep_probability`	number	Probability Elon is currently sleeping.
`markets.model_prob`	number	Pro Only. Our calculated win probability.
`markets.market_price`	number	Current “Yes” price on Polymarket.
`markets.edge`	number	Pro Only. `model_prob - market_price`.
`markets.signal`	string	Pro Only. `STRONG_BUY`, `BUY`, `HOLD`, `SELL`.

EV-Based Signals

GET /signals/elon

Pro Only. Returns actionable trading signals optimized for Expected Value (EV), with optimal Kelly Criterion bet sizing and Information Asymmetry edge detection.

Query Parameters:

Parameter	Required	Description
`bankroll`	No	Your bankroll in USD (1-1,000,000). Sizes `suggested_bet` via Kelly criterion. If omitted, a server default is used.

GET /api/v1/signals/elon?bankroll=100

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1771246739535,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 206602,
      "signals": [
        {
          "bucket": "65-89",
          "action": "BUY",
          "model_prob": 1.0,
          "market_price": 0.945,
          "edge": 0.055,
          "ev": 0.058,
          "kelly_fraction": 0.058,
          "suggested_bet": 5.80,
          "confidence": "HIGH",
          "moneyness": 0.5,
          "time_confidence": "HIGH",
          "asymmetry_edge": 0,
          "reasons": [
            "Strong signal: 100% prob, +5.8% EV"
          ],
          "bankroll": 100.0
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

Portfolio Analysis

GET /portfolio/elon

Pro Only. Fetches your open Elon tweet market positions directly from Polymarket, then overlays our model predictions to tell you where each position stands.

Query Parameters:

Parameter	Required	Description
`wallet`	Yes	Your Ethereum wallet address (e.g. `0xabc...123`)

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1771246750000,
  "data": [
    {
      "wallet": "0xabc...123",
      "event": {
        "id": 206602,
        "title": "Elon Musk # tweets February 14 - February 16, 2026?",
        "end_ts": 1771261200000
      },
      "prediction": {
        "p5": 68,
        "p50": 72,
        "p95": 78,
        "real_counter": 68,
        "seconds_remaining": 14528,
        "velocity_counted_1h": 4.2
      },
      "positions": [
        {
          "event_id": "206602",
          "bucket": "65-89",
          "tokens": 50.0,
          "avg_price": 0.82,
          "cost_basis": 41.00,
          "current_price": 0.945,
          "current_value": 47.25,
          "pnl": 6.25,
          "pnl_percent": 15.24,
          "analysis": {
            "win_probability": 1.0,
            "market_implied": 0.945,
            "edge": 0.055,
            "edge_percent": 5.82,
            "signal": "BUY",
            "recommendation": "HOLD"
          }
        }
      ],
      "portfolio": {
        "total_positions": 1,
        "total_cost": 41.00,
        "current_value": 47.25,
        "total_pnl": 6.25,
        "total_pnl_percent": 15.24
      }
    }
  ]
}

How It Works

The endpoint has three steps:

Fetches your open positions from the Polymarket API using your wallet address
Filters to active Elon tweet markets — positions in other market types are excluded
Overlays model predictions for each bucket you hold, computing edge and generating a signal

If no active Elon events are running, positions will be empty and a message field explains why.

Field Descriptions — prediction

Field	Type	Description
`p5` / `p50` / `p95`	number	Monte Carlo forecast percentiles for final tweet count.
`real_counter`	number	Current real tweet count at time of prediction.
`seconds_remaining`	number	Seconds until the event closes.
`velocity_counted_1h`	number	Average counted tweets per hour over the last hour. Useful for projecting how much more is likely before close.

Field Descriptions — positions

Field	Type	Description
`bucket`	string	The Polymarket outcome bucket you hold (e.g. `"65-89"`).
`tokens`	number	Number of shares/tokens you hold.
`avg_price`	number	Your average purchase price per token.
`cost_basis`	number	Total amount paid for this position.
`current_price`	number	Current market price per token.
`current_value`	number	Current mark-to-market value.
`pnl`	number	Unrealised profit/loss in USDC.
`pnl_percent`	number	Unrealised PnL as a percentage.

Field Descriptions — analysis

Field	Type	Description
`win_probability`	number	Model’s estimated probability this bucket wins (0–1).
`market_implied`	number	Current market price — the crowd’s implied probability.
`edge`	number	`win_probability − market_implied`. Positive = model sees more value than the market.
`edge_percent`	number	Edge expressed as a percentage of the market price.
`signal`	string	See signal table below.
`recommendation`	string	See recommendation table below.

Signal Values

The signal field is based on edge_percent:

Signal	Condition	Meaning
`STRONG_BUY`	`edge_percent > 30%`	Model sees strong undervaluation — consider adding
`BUY`	`edge_percent > 10%`	Clear positive edge exists
`HOLD`	`edge_percent > 0%`	Slight edge — worth keeping
`AVOID`	`edge_percent > -10%`	Near fair value, slightly unfavourable
`SELL`	`edge_percent ≤ -10%`	Model sees meaningful overvaluation — consider exiting

Recommendation Values

The recommendation field is based on raw edge (not percentage):

Recommendation	Condition	Meaning
`STRONG_HOLD`	`edge > 0.20`	High absolute edge — hold firmly
`HOLD`	`edge > 0.05`	Positive edge — no reason to exit
`MONITOR`	`edge > -0.05`	Near fair value — watch closely
`CONSIDER_SELLING`	`edge ≤ -0.05`	Model favours exiting this position

Error Responses

Status	Condition
`400`	Wallet address is not a valid Ethereum address (`0x` + 40 hex chars)
`401`	Missing or invalid Pro API key
`503`	Could not reach the Polymarket API to fetch positions

Raw Tweet Stream

GET /meta/elon/tweets

Public (Masked) / Pro (Full).

Public: Fixed at the latest 15 tweets. is_counted is null.
Pro: Custom pagination using limit (max 100) and offset. is_counted (true/false) reveals which tweets count toward resolution.

Query Parameters (Pro Only):

limit: Number of tweets to return (max 100).
offset: Number of tweets to skip.

Sample Response:

{
  "timestamp": 1771246730263,
  "data": [
    {
      "tweet_id": "2023331176019370170",
      "text": "Yes https://t.co/C7Eo7s...",
      "created_ts": 1771234718000,
      "is_reply": false,
      "is_quote": true,
      "is_retweet": false,
      "is_counted": true
    }
  ],
  "limit": 15,
  "offset": 0
}

Field Descriptions

Field	Type	Description
`tweet_id`	string	Twitter status ID.
`text`	string	Tweet content.
`is_counted`	boolean\|null	Pro Only. Whether tweet counts for resolution. Null for public users.
`is_reply` / `is_quote` / `is_retweet`	boolean	Tweet type flags.
`limit` / `offset`	number	Pagination values used for the request.