POLYSTRIKE

Live on Polymarket

Intelligence layer for Polymarket tweet markets

Oracle tracking at a measured 11.5s median from post to count, Monte Carlo forecasts, and EV-based trading signals for Polymarket. Available via API, MCP, and x402 micropayments. For human traders ($79/mo) and AI agents (pay-per-request via x402). API-first.

Start trading smarter → See how it works

Watch the live Elon Musk tweet counter or the Ted Cruz post counter — free, no signup.

As of 2026-08-13 21:21 UTC, Elon Musk has posted 16 tweets this week (Polymarket market: Elon Musk # tweets August 13 - August 15, 2026). This number is server-rendered into the page, so agents that read HTML without running JavaScript can quote it directly.

Oracle delta · @elonmusk Live
3
Post → count (p50)11.5s
Oracle interval5min
MC simulations1,000

Real count vs. oracle vs. UI — three independent lag signals

The numbers

FIG. 01 — SYSTEM CADENCE
11.5s

Median post-to-count (p50)

5min

Oracle update interval

3

Independent delta signals

1,000

Monte Carlo simulations

How it works

FIG. 02 — COUNT · CLASSIFY · TRADE

Polystrike is an oracle intelligence layer. We sit between Twitter and Polymarket, catching what the platform misses.

01

Polymarket shows the wrong number

The tweet counter on Polymarket frequently freezes or falls behind. The settlement oracle only refreshes every 5 minutes. Most traders are pricing their bets on stale data and don’t know it.

The counter you see is not the counter that settles the market.

02

We see the real count first

Polystrike polls X every second for @elonmusk (every 5 seconds for other tracked accounts) and classifies each tweet against the exact settlement rules. Measured on 2026-07-29: a new post is in our count a median of 11.5 seconds after it is posted (p90 12.6–15.1s, p99 28.2s). We also keep deleted tweets we captured while they were live.

Median 11.5s from post to count, against a ~5-minute oracle cycle.

03

You trade the gap

When the market thinks the count is 240 but we know it’s 248, that’s an 8-tweet gap. Traders holding the 240-259 bucket don’t realize it’s about to bust. You do.

Three independent gap signals. Each one is a different trading edge.

Your edge, quantified

FIG. 03 — SIGNAL PIPELINE

Not a counter. Not a dashboard. A 10-gate quant signal pipeline with Monte Carlo simulation and Kelly-sized position recommendations.

Ahead of the Oracle, Measured

We poll X every second for @elonmusk (5 seconds for other tracked accounts). A post reaches our count in a median of 11.5 seconds; the settlement oracle scrapes on a roughly 5-minute cycle. So you can see the real count while the oracle is still between scrapes. What you do with that is your call — the order book usually prices the real count, so this is accurate information, not a guaranteed edge.

Deleted Tweets Captured

Elon deletes tweets. We capture them before they vanish and keep the record flagged, so you can see what the oracle never sampled — a confirmed deletion then stops counting, same as settlement.

Smart Tweet Classification

Not every Elon tweet counts toward settlement. The rules are complex: some replies count, others don’t. Community reposts don’t. We classify every tweet against the exact settlement rules as it lands, and expose the verdict per post.

Three Independent Lag Signals

We track the gap between the real count and the oracle, the real count and the UI, and the UI and the oracle. Each gap is a different trading opportunity.

Bucket Probability Forecasts

1,000 Monte Carlo simulations per event tell you which tweet count bucket is most likely to win. The model knows when Elon sleeps, so it doesn’t overcount overnight.

Built for Bots and Humans

Clean JSON API that works for trading bots, AI agents, and humans with a curl command. Pay per request or subscribe monthly — your choice.

API endpoints

FIG. 04 — HTTP JSON

HTTP JSON APIs. No WebSocket required for most use cases. All responses include timestamps and are designed for LLM consumption.

MethodEndpointDescriptionTier
GET/api/v1/meta/elonLive tweet counts (real, oracle, UI), all three lag signals, hours remaining in current eventFree
GET/api/v1/meta/elon/tweetsFull tweet feed with settlement classification, deleted tweet flags, and referenced contentFree (15) / Pro (all)
GET/api/v1/prediction/elonWhich bucket will win? Probability forecasts from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulationsPro
GET/api/v1/signals/elonAutomated buy/sell signals with expected value and optimal bet sizingPro (coming soon)
agent quickstart — curl
# 1. Discover the API
curl https://polystrike.xyz/SKILL.md

# 2. Get market state (free, no auth)
curl https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1/meta/elon

# 3. Get predictions (Pro key required)
curl -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_KEY" \
  https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1/prediction/elon

Full API reference at polystrike.xyz/SKILL.md.

Pricing

FIG. 05 — FREE · PRO · AGENT

Start free. Upgrade when you need predictions and signals.

Free
$0

See the data. No API key needed.

  • Real tweet count vs. oracle vs. UI count
  • Three lag signals, recomputed as each qualifying post lands
  • Last 15 tweets with classification
  • 100 requests per hour
Try It Now
Pro Full access
$79/mo

Full data, predictions, and signals.

  • Everything in Free
  • Complete tweet archive (not just last 15)
  • Full classification + deleted tweet flags
  • Monte Carlo bucket probability forecasts
  • Automated trading signals (coming soon)
  • 10,000 requests per hour
  • Pay with card or USDC
Get Pro Access
AI Agent
$0.01/call

Pay per request. No subscription needed.

  • Same data as Free tier
  • USDC micropayments via x402
  • No API key to manage
  • Machine-readable docs
  • Built for autonomous bots
Read the Docs

Built for AI agents

Your agent can discover Polystrike, understand the API, and start trading — without human intervention. Structured JSON responses. Machine-readable docs. Pay-per-call via x402. Start with the free Polymarket tweet count API, connect Claude via the MCP server, or point your agent at llms.txt.

Tweet count APIcurl · JSON → MCP server for Claudesetup → /llms.txtagent index → /SKILL.mdcapabilities →

Roadmap

FIG. 06 — VERTICALS

Polystrike is vertical intelligence for specific market types. Same approach — real-world data feeds, oracle delta tracking, model-ready APIs — applied to new verticals.

Live

Elon Tweet Markets

Tweet counting at a measured 11.5s median from post to count, smart classification, deleted tweet capture, lag detection, and Monte Carlo predictions. Fully operational.

Building

Trading Signals

Automated buy/sell signals based on expected value, optimal bet sizing, and real-time lag detection. Coming soon for Pro subscribers.

Next

Weather Markets

Applying the same oracle-intelligence approach to weather resolution markets on Polymarket.

Next

Crypto 5/15min Markets

Short-duration crypto price markets. High-frequency opportunities with the same data-edge methodology.

Get your API key

FIG. 07 — WAITLIST

Tell us what you're building. We'll set you up with Pro access.