Research
Polymarket market research
What we have learned about how these markets settle, measured on the data we collect. Notes on mechanics and data sources, not trading advice.
Who makes money on Polymarket weather markets: what 11,237 wallets show
Every fill in 680 resolved daily temperature markets in nine cities, October 1 to November 9 2026: resting orders lost to takers, winners kept winning, and public forecast models do not explain the best traders.
Polymarket weather markets: which station settles each city
Each temperature market settles on one airport weather report. We checked which station matches the result in each city, how the rule reads now, and why daily climate summaries give the wrong answer.
How Polymarket tweet-count markets settle: what 296 resolved markets show
Elon Musk, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump post-count markets from January to November 2026: how close the final count lands to a bucket boundary, how far the Polymarket page number lags, and where an independent count disagrees.