Donald Trump Post Markets

@realDonaldTrump on Truth Social is read about every 15 seconds; when Truth Social blocks the fast reader we fall back to about every 5 minutes. The 11.5 s post-to-count median quoted elsewhere was measured for @elonmusk only and does not apply to this account.

Counting rules (Truth Social): Truths, quote Truths and ReTruths count; replies don’t. The Truth Social market counts deleted posts once they were captured. The market settles on XTracker’s final in-window count.

All endpoints on this page need a Data key (X-API-Key header) or an x402 payment of $0.01 per call. Without either they answer HTTP 402. See API Overview.

Counters

GET /api/v1/meta/trump

curl -A "my-app/1.0" -H "X-API-Key: ps_pro_..." https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1/meta/trump

The open market windows are in data; several can be open at once. Example response (the numbers are illustrative):

{
  "timestamp": 1790795280353,
  "freshness": "live",
  "freshness_delay_sec": 0,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 1083675,
      "event_title": "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?",
      "slug": "...",
      "image": "https://...",
      "start_ts": 1790697600000,
      "end_ts": 1791302400000,
      "snapshot_ts": 1790793220392,
      "polymarket_xtracker_counter": 8,
      "real_counter": 9,
      "polymarket_ui_counter": 8,
      "settlement_delta": 1,
      "display_delta": 1,
      "internal_delta": 0
    }
  ]
}

Field	Description
`timestamp`	Server time of the response.
`freshness` / `freshness_delay_sec`	`"live"` / `0` for Data keys and x402 payers.
`event_id`, `event_title`, `slug`, `image`	The Polymarket event.
`start_ts` / `end_ts`	The market window.
`snapshot_ts`	When these counters were captured.
`real_counter`	Our count of qualifying posts in the window.
`polymarket_xtracker_counter`	XTracker’s count. The market settles on this number.
`polymarket_ui_counter`	The number the Polymarket page shows. Display only.
`settlement_delta`	`real_counter - polymarket_xtracker_counter`
`display_delta`	`real_counter - polymarket_ui_counter`
`internal_delta`	`polymarket_ui_counter - polymarket_xtracker_counter`

A counter can be null when the window has no snapshot yet. The deltas describe timing, not a trading signal; see Core Concepts.

Recent posts

GET /api/v1/meta/trump/posts

Query: limit (1-100, default 15) and offset.

curl -A "my-app/1.0" -H "X-API-Key: ps_pro_..." \
  "https://polystrike.xyz/api/v1/meta/trump/posts?limit=100&offset=0"

{
  "timestamp": 1770734408963,
  "data": [
    {
      "tweet_id": "115123456789012345",
      "text": "...",
      "created_ts": 1770733881000,
      "referenced_text": null,
      "referenced_author_id": null,
      "is_reply": false,
      "is_quote": false,
      "is_retweet": false,
      "is_counted": true
    }
  ],
  "limit": 15,
  "offset": 0
}

is_counted: whether the post counts under the market’s rules, true or false.
is_reply, is_quote, is_retweet: the post type.
On Truth Social, tweet_id is the post ID, is_retweet marks a ReTruth and is_quote a quote Truth.
referenced_text / referenced_author_id: the quoted or reposted post, when there is one.
created_ts: when the post was published.
This feed leaves out deleted posts. The full record, deletions included, is /api/v1/history/trump/tweets.

Bucket prices

GET /api/v1/prediction/trump

Despite the path name, this endpoint returns no forecasts. Each open window carries the counters and deltas, seconds_remaining, the posting pace over the last hour and each bucket’s Polymarket price.

{
  "timestamp": 1790795280353,
  "freshness": "live",
  "freshness_delay_sec": 0,
  "data": [
    {
      "event_id": 1083675,
      "event_title": "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026?",
      "polymarket_xtracker_counter": 8,
      "polymarket_ui_counter": 8,
      "real_counter": 9,
      "settlement_delta": 1,
      "display_delta": 1,
      "internal_delta": 0,
      "seconds_remaining": 507119,
      "velocity_counted_1h": 1.0,
      "velocity_all_1h": 2.0,
      "markets": [
        { "title": "0-19", "market_price": 0.12 },
        { "title": "20-39", "market_price": 0.47 }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

Field	Description
`seconds_remaining`	Seconds until the window closes.
`velocity_counted_1h`	Counted posts in the last hour.
`velocity_all_1h`	All posts in the last hour, counted or not.
`markets[].title`	The bucket, as Polymarket names it.
`markets[].market_price`	The bucket’s Polymarket YES price (implied probability).

The response no longer carries forecast, model_prob, edge or sleep_probability; those were retired on 2026-11-08. For price history, see /api/v1/history/trump/prices.