Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · 2-day
Elon Musk posted 27 tweets from September 5–7, 2026.
On Polymarket, the <40 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.999 (99.9¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 27 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | <40 |
| Final YES price | $0.999 |
| Max page lag | 3 |
| Window | 2 days |
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 63 · high 96 · low 27 · -50 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5–7, 2026 this market | 27 | <40 | -50 |
| September 3–5, 2026 | 77 | 65-89 | +20 |
| August 31 – September 2, 2026 | 57 | 40-64 | -1 |
| August 29–31, 2026 | 58 | 40-64 | +5 |
| August 27–29, 2026 | 53 | 40-64 | -5 |
| August 24–26, 2026 | 58 | 40-64 | +14 |
| August 22–24, 2026 | 44 | 40-64 | -52 |
| August 20–22, 2026 | 96 | 90-114 | +3 |
| August 17–19, 2026 | 93 | 90-114 | — |
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post from September 5–7, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 27 tweets from September 5–7, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for September 5–7, 2026?
The <40 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.999 (99.9¢ implied), and the settlement count of 27 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.