POLYSTRIKE

Resolved Polymarket markets

Polymarket tweet-count market history

Every resolved window we tracked: the final count, the bucket that won, and the largest gap we recorded between our count and Polymarket's page.

WindowAccountFinal countWinning bucketMax page lag
November 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk31<409
November 3–10, 2026 weeklyElon Musk278260-27941
November 7–9, 2026 windowElon Musk9090-1149
November 5–7, 2026 windowElon Musk10490-11431
October 30 – November 6, 2026 weeklyElon Musk314300-31940
November 2–4, 2026 windowElon Musk8365-8911
October 27 – November 3, 2026 weeklyElon Musk395380-39919
October 31 – November 2, 2026 windowElon Musk9490-11410
October 2026 monthlyElon Musk15221000+125
October 29–31, 2026 windowElon Musk159140-16424
October 23–30, 2026 weeklyElon Musk392380-39919
October 26–28, 2026 windowElon Musk10590-1148
October 20–27, 2026 weeklyElon Musk339320-33925
October 24–26, 2026 windowElon Musk8465-8959
October 22–24, 2026 windowElon Musk9190-11414
October 16–23, 2026 weeklyElon Musk279260-27926
October 19–21, 2026 windowElon Musk7665-8912
October 13–20, 2026 weeklyElon Musk337320-3399
October 17–19, 2026 windowElon Musk6240-646
October 15–17, 2026 windowElon Musk11490-1148
October 9–16, 2026 weeklyElon Musk351340-35911
October 12–14, 2026 windowElon Musk9590-1149
October 6–13, 2026 weeklyElon Musk371360-379116
October 10–12, 2026 windowElon Musk5440-644
October 8–10, 2026 windowElon Musk10990-11410
October 2–9, 2026 weeklyElon Musk335320-339123
October 5–7, 2026 windowElon Musk5940-6446
September 29 – October 6, 2026 weeklyElon Musk212200-21911
October 3–5, 2026 windowElon Musk7265-897
October 1–3, 2026 windowElon Musk7365-898
September 25 – October 2, 2026 weeklyElon Musk224220-239223
September 2026 monthlyElon Musk878840-87918
September 28–30, 2026 windowElon Musk5640-646
September 22–29, 2026 weeklyElon Musk182180-1995
September 26–28, 2026 windowElon Musk6240-645
September 24–26, 2026 windowElon Musk5140-643
September 18–25, 2026 weeklyElon Musk204200-2198
September 21–23, 2026 windowElon Musk7665-896
September 15–22, 2026 weeklyElon Musk227220-2399
September 19–21, 2026 windowElon Musk5240-644
September 17–19, 2026 windowElon Musk6240-645
September 11–18, 2026 weeklyElon Musk207200-2197
September 14–16, 2026 windowElon Musk6140-645
September 8–15, 2026 weeklyElon Musk190180-19934
September 12–14, 2026 windowElon Musk6340-646
September 10–12, 2026 windowElon Musk4840-6435
September 4–11, 2026 weeklyElon Musk179160-17925
September 7–9, 2026 windowElon Musk5740-645
September 1–8, 2026 weeklyElon Musk213200-2197
September 5–7, 2026 windowElon Musk27<403
September 3–5, 2026 windowElon Musk7765-895
August 28 – September 4, 2026 weeklyElon Musk228220-2397
August 31 – September 2, 2026 windowElon Musk5740-645
August 25 – September 1, 2026 weeklyElon Musk175160-17934
August 2026 monthlyElon Musk882880-91934
August 29–31, 2026 windowElon Musk5840-644
August 27–29, 2026 windowElon Musk5340-646
August 21–28, 2026 weeklyElon Musk192180-19935
August 24–26, 2026 windowElon Musk5840-646
August 18–25, 2026 weeklyElon Musk326320-3399
August 22–24, 2026 windowElon Musk4440-645
August 20–22, 2026 windowElon Musk9690-11466
August 14–21, 2026 weeklyElon Musk252240-2598
August 17–19, 2026 windowElon Musk9390-114—
August 11–18, 2026 weeklyElon Musk160160-179158
August 15–17, 2026 windowElon Musk34<40—
August 13–15, 2026 windowElon Musk5740-645
August 7–14, 2026 weeklyElon Musk185180-1995
August 10–12, 2026 windowElon Musk34<405
August 4–11, 2026 weeklyElon Musk170160-1794
August 8–10, 2026 windowElon Musk4340-644
August 6–8, 2026 windowElon Musk5040-644
July 31 – August 7, 2026 weeklyElon Musk187180-1994
August 3–5, 2026 windowElon Musk4540-643
July 28 – August 4, 2026 weeklyElon Musk222220-2396
August 1–3, 2026 windowElon Musk4240-644
July 30 – August 1, 2026 windowElon Musk8165-896
July 2026 monthlyElon Musk894880-919—
July 24–31, 2026 weeklyElon Musk270260-2796
July 27–29, 2026 windowElon Musk6565-896
July 21–28, 2026 weeklyElon Musk281280-2997
July 25–27, 2026 windowElon Musk5940-643
July 23–25, 2026 windowElon Musk11290-1145
July 17–24, 2026 weeklyElon Musk207200-219101
July 20–22, 2026 windowElon Musk8165-890
July 14–21, 2026 weeklyElon Musk158140-15949
July 18–20, 2026 windowElon Musk32<400
July 16–18, 2026 windowElon Musk5340-642
July 10–17, 2026 weeklyElon Musk161160-17992
July 13–15, 2026 windowElon Musk5540-64—
July 7–14, 2026 weeklyElon Musk196180-19921
July 11–13, 2026 windowElon Musk26<401
July 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk7665-890
July 3–10, 2026 weeklyElon Musk187180-199133
July 6–8, 2026 windowElon Musk35<400
June 30 – July 7, 2026 weeklyElon Musk123120-13960
July 4–6, 2026 windowElon Musk36<400
July 2–4, 2026 windowElon Musk22<400
June 26 – July 3, 2026 weeklyElon Musk189180-19965
June 29 – July 1, 2026 windowElon Musk6340-641
June 2026 monthlyElon Musk974960-999—
June 23–30, 2026 weeklyElon Musk258240-259100
June 27–29, 2026 windowElon Musk6140-642
June 25–27, 2026 windowElon Musk5840-644
June 19–26, 2026 weeklyElon Musk241240-2596
June 22–24, 2026 windowElon Musk10690-1146
June 16–23, 2026 weeklyElon Musk210200-21923
June 20–22, 2026 windowElon Musk6140-644
June 18–20, 2026 windowElon Musk4640-644
June 12–19, 2026 weeklyElon Musk196180-1996
June 15–17, 2026 windowElon Musk7865-895
June 9–16, 2026 weeklyElon Musk204200-21915
June 13–15, 2026 windowElon Musk4240-644
June 11–13, 2026 windowElon Musk6340-645
June 5–12, 2026 weeklyElon Musk236220-23981
June 8–10, 2026 windowElon Musk5840-644
June 2–9, 2026 weeklyElon Musk222220-2394
June 6–8, 2026 windowElon Musk5940-644
June 4–6, 2026 windowElon Musk7065-89—
May 29 – June 5, 2026 weeklyElon Musk193180-1996
June 1–3, 2026 windowElon Musk7165-897
May 26 – June 2, 2026 weeklyElon Musk174160-1796
May 30 – June 1, 2026 windowElon Musk36<401
May 2026 monthlyElon Musk838800-8399
May 28–30, 2026 windowElon Musk5340-64—
May 22–29, 2026 weeklyElon Musk182180-1997
May 25–27, 2026 windowElon Musk4240-64—
May 23–25, 2026 windowElon Musk5440-643
May 15–22, 2026 weeklyElon Musk290280-29949
May 12–19, 2026 weeklyElon Musk236220-23931
May 16–18, 2026 windowElon Musk8765-895
May 14–16, 2026 windowElon Musk7265-898
May 8–15, 2026 weeklyElon Musk147140-1599
May 11–13, 2026 windowElon Musk4740-643
May 5–12, 2026 weeklyElon Musk115100-1194
May 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk27<404
May 7–9, 2026 windowElon Musk37<404
May 1–8, 2026 weeklyElon Musk164160-1795
May 4–6, 2026 windowElon Musk34<402
April 28 – May 5, 2026 weeklyElon Musk159140-15916
May 2–4, 2026 windowElon Musk5540-645
April 30 – May 2, 2026 windowElon Musk5040-643
April 24 – May 1, 2026 weeklyElon Musk193180-19917
April 2026 monthlyElon Musk10601040-1079—
April 27–29, 2026 windowElon Musk5940-645
April 21–28, 2026 weeklyElon Musk228220-2398
April 25–27, 2026 windowElon Musk4040-644
April 23–25, 2026 windowElon Musk8065-896
April 17–24, 2026 weeklyElon Musk204200-21966
April 20–22, 2026 windowElon Musk6040-640
April 18–20, 2026 windowElon Musk4640-643
April 16–18, 2026 windowElon Musk7665-896
April 10–17, 2026 weeklyElon Musk307300-3197
April 13–15, 2026 windowElon Musk6965-896
April 7–14, 2026 weeklyElon Musk299280-2997
April 11–13, 2026 windowElon Musk135115-1396
April 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk6765-895
April 3–10, 2026 weeklyElon Musk242240-2596
April 6–8, 2026 windowElon Musk8165-896
March 31 – April 7, 2026 weeklyElon Musk277260-27956
April 4–6, 2026 windowElon Musk6665-894
April 2–4, 2026 windowElon Musk9890-1146
March 27 – April 3, 2026 weeklyElon Musk278260-279160
March 30 – April 1, 2026 windowElon Musk9990-1147
March 2026 monthlyElon Musk13291320-1359—
March 24–31, 2026 weeklyElon Musk236220-2395
March 28–30, 2026 windowElon Musk6040-644
March 26–28, 2026 windowElon Musk7665-895
March 20–27, 2026 weeklyElon Musk269260-27910
March 23–25, 2026 windowElon Musk5740-644
March 17–24, 2026 weeklyElon Musk367360-3797
March 21–23, 2026 windowElon Musk9390-1146
March 19–21, 2026 windowElon Musk115115-139—
March 13–20, 2026 weeklyElon Musk329320-3398
March 16–18, 2026 windowElon Musk9690-1146
March 10–17, 2026 weeklyElon Musk288280-2998
March 14–16, 2026 windowElon Musk4240-644
March 12–14, 2026 windowElon Musk11090-1147
March 6–13, 2026 weeklyElon Musk379360-379198
March 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk116115-13996
March 10–11, 2026 windowElon Musk4040-495
March 3–10, 2026 weeklyElon Musk349340-359175
March 7–9, 2026 windowElon Musk10090-11498
March 5–7, 2026 windowElon Musk10090-1149
February 27 – March 6, 2026 weeklyElon Musk212200-219105
March 2–4, 2026 windowElon Musk39<40—
February 24 – March 3, 2026 weeklyElon Musk211200-21915
February 28 – March 2, 2026 windowElon Musk5240-64—
February 26–28, 2026 windowElon Musk4940-643
February 20–27, 2026 weeklyElon Musk314300-319126
February 23–25, 2026 windowElon Musk8165-8934
February 17–24, 2026 weeklyElon Musk367360-37965
February 21–23, 2026 windowElon Musk8365-8910
February 19–21, 2026 windowElon Musk122115-1398
February 13–20, 2026 weeklyElon Musk309300-31917
February 16–18, 2026 windowElon Musk10690-1147
February 10–17, 2026 weeklyElon Musk249240-25941
February 14–16, 2026 windowElon Musk7865-897
February 12–14, 2026 windowElon Musk5040-6429
February 6–13, 2026 weeklyElon Musk368360-37964
February 9–11, 2026 windowElon Musk152140-16453
February 3–10, 2026 weeklyElon Musk365360-379119

Final count: the count the market resolved on; it falls inside the winning bucket. Max page lag: how far Polymarket's page trailed our count at its worst; red means 20 or more, "—" means we didn't record it. Latest window closed 2026-11-11. Data as of 2026-11-12; windows that closed after that date are not listed yet.

Windows without a confirmed result (3)

Our price data for these markets ends before any bucket reached 90¢, so we can't confirm which bucket won. The number shown is our own count, not a settled one.

WindowAccountOur count
April 14–21, 2026 weeklyElon Musk196
February 2026 monthlyElon Musk1250
January 30 – February 6, 2026 weeklyElon Musk284