Resolved Polymarket markets
Polymarket tweet-count market history
Every resolved window we tracked: the final count, the bucket that won, and the largest gap we recorded between our count and Polymarket's page.
| Window | Account | Final count | Winning bucket | Max page lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 31 | <40 | 9 |
| November 3–10, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 278 | 260-279 | 41 |
| November 7–9, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 90 | 90-114 | 9 |
| November 5–7, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 104 | 90-114 | 31 |
| October 30 – November 6, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 314 | 300-319 | 40 |
| November 2–4, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 83 | 65-89 | 11 |
| October 27 – November 3, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 395 | 380-399 | 19 |
| October 31 – November 2, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 94 | 90-114 | 10 |
| October 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 1522 | 1000+ | 125 |
| October 29–31, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 159 | 140-164 | 24 |
| October 23–30, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 392 | 380-399 | 19 |
| October 26–28, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 105 | 90-114 | 8 |
| October 20–27, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 339 | 320-339 | 25 |
| October 24–26, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 84 | 65-89 | 59 |
| October 22–24, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 91 | 90-114 | 14 |
| October 16–23, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 279 | 260-279 | 26 |
| October 19–21, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 76 | 65-89 | 12 |
| October 13–20, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 337 | 320-339 | 9 |
| October 17–19, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 62 | 40-64 | 6 |
| October 15–17, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 114 | 90-114 | 8 |
| October 9–16, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 351 | 340-359 | 11 |
| October 12–14, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 95 | 90-114 | 9 |
| October 6–13, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 371 | 360-379 | 116 |
| October 10–12, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 54 | 40-64 | 4 |
| October 8–10, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 109 | 90-114 | 10 |
| October 2–9, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 335 | 320-339 | 123 |
| October 5–7, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 59 | 40-64 | 46 |
| September 29 – October 6, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 212 | 200-219 | 11 |
| October 3–5, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 72 | 65-89 | 7 |
| October 1–3, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 73 | 65-89 | 8 |
| September 25 – October 2, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 224 | 220-239 | 223 |
| September 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 878 | 840-879 | 18 |
| September 28–30, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 56 | 40-64 | 6 |
| September 22–29, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 182 | 180-199 | 5 |
| September 26–28, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 62 | 40-64 | 5 |
| September 24–26, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 51 | 40-64 | 3 |
| September 18–25, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 204 | 200-219 | 8 |
| September 21–23, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 76 | 65-89 | 6 |
| September 15–22, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 227 | 220-239 | 9 |
| September 19–21, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 52 | 40-64 | 4 |
| September 17–19, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 62 | 40-64 | 5 |
| September 11–18, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 207 | 200-219 | 7 |
| September 14–16, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 61 | 40-64 | 5 |
| September 8–15, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 190 | 180-199 | 34 |
| September 12–14, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 63 | 40-64 | 6 |
| September 10–12, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 48 | 40-64 | 35 |
| September 4–11, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 179 | 160-179 | 25 |
| September 7–9, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 57 | 40-64 | 5 |
| September 1–8, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 213 | 200-219 | 7 |
| September 5–7, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 27 | <40 | 3 |
| September 3–5, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 77 | 65-89 | 5 |
| August 28 – September 4, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 228 | 220-239 | 7 |
| August 31 – September 2, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 57 | 40-64 | 5 |
| August 25 – September 1, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 175 | 160-179 | 34 |
| August 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 882 | 880-919 | 34 |
| August 29–31, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 58 | 40-64 | 4 |
| August 27–29, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 53 | 40-64 | 6 |
| August 21–28, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 192 | 180-199 | 35 |
| August 24–26, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 58 | 40-64 | 6 |
| August 18–25, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 326 | 320-339 | 9 |
| August 22–24, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 44 | 40-64 | 5 |
| August 20–22, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 96 | 90-114 | 66 |
| August 14–21, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 252 | 240-259 | 8 |
| August 17–19, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 93 | 90-114 | — |
| August 11–18, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 160 | 160-179 | 158 |
| August 15–17, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 34 | <40 | — |
| August 13–15, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 57 | 40-64 | 5 |
| August 7–14, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 185 | 180-199 | 5 |
| August 10–12, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 34 | <40 | 5 |
| August 4–11, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 170 | 160-179 | 4 |
| August 8–10, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 43 | 40-64 | 4 |
| August 6–8, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 50 | 40-64 | 4 |
| July 31 – August 7, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 187 | 180-199 | 4 |
| August 3–5, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 45 | 40-64 | 3 |
| July 28 – August 4, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 222 | 220-239 | 6 |
| August 1–3, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 42 | 40-64 | 4 |
| July 30 – August 1, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 81 | 65-89 | 6 |
| July 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 894 | 880-919 | — |
| July 24–31, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 270 | 260-279 | 6 |
| July 27–29, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 65 | 65-89 | 6 |
| July 21–28, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 281 | 280-299 | 7 |
| July 25–27, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 59 | 40-64 | 3 |
| July 23–25, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 112 | 90-114 | 5 |
| July 17–24, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 207 | 200-219 | 101 |
| July 20–22, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 81 | 65-89 | 0 |
| July 14–21, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 158 | 140-159 | 49 |
| July 18–20, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 32 | <40 | 0 |
| July 16–18, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 53 | 40-64 | 2 |
| July 10–17, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 161 | 160-179 | 92 |
| July 13–15, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 55 | 40-64 | — |
| July 7–14, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 196 | 180-199 | 21 |
| July 11–13, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 26 | <40 | 1 |
| July 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 76 | 65-89 | 0 |
| July 3–10, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 187 | 180-199 | 133 |
| July 6–8, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 35 | <40 | 0 |
| June 30 – July 7, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 123 | 120-139 | 60 |
| July 4–6, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 36 | <40 | 0 |
| July 2–4, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 22 | <40 | 0 |
| June 26 – July 3, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 189 | 180-199 | 65 |
| June 29 – July 1, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 63 | 40-64 | 1 |
| June 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 974 | 960-999 | — |
| June 23–30, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 258 | 240-259 | 100 |
| June 27–29, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 61 | 40-64 | 2 |
| June 25–27, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 58 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 19–26, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 241 | 240-259 | 6 |
| June 22–24, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 106 | 90-114 | 6 |
| June 16–23, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 210 | 200-219 | 23 |
| June 20–22, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 61 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 18–20, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 46 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 12–19, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 196 | 180-199 | 6 |
| June 15–17, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 78 | 65-89 | 5 |
| June 9–16, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 204 | 200-219 | 15 |
| June 13–15, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 42 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 11–13, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 63 | 40-64 | 5 |
| June 5–12, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 236 | 220-239 | 81 |
| June 8–10, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 58 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 2–9, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 222 | 220-239 | 4 |
| June 6–8, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 59 | 40-64 | 4 |
| June 4–6, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 70 | 65-89 | — |
| May 29 – June 5, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 193 | 180-199 | 6 |
| June 1–3, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 71 | 65-89 | 7 |
| May 26 – June 2, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 174 | 160-179 | 6 |
| May 30 – June 1, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 36 | <40 | 1 |
| May 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 838 | 800-839 | 9 |
| May 28–30, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 53 | 40-64 | — |
| May 22–29, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 182 | 180-199 | 7 |
| May 25–27, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 42 | 40-64 | — |
| May 23–25, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 54 | 40-64 | 3 |
| May 15–22, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 290 | 280-299 | 49 |
| May 12–19, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 236 | 220-239 | 31 |
| May 16–18, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 87 | 65-89 | 5 |
| May 14–16, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 72 | 65-89 | 8 |
| May 8–15, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 147 | 140-159 | 9 |
| May 11–13, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 47 | 40-64 | 3 |
| May 5–12, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 115 | 100-119 | 4 |
| May 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 27 | <40 | 4 |
| May 7–9, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 37 | <40 | 4 |
| May 1–8, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 164 | 160-179 | 5 |
| May 4–6, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 34 | <40 | 2 |
| April 28 – May 5, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 159 | 140-159 | 16 |
| May 2–4, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 55 | 40-64 | 5 |
| April 30 – May 2, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 50 | 40-64 | 3 |
| April 24 – May 1, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 193 | 180-199 | 17 |
| April 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 1060 | 1040-1079 | — |
| April 27–29, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 59 | 40-64 | 5 |
| April 21–28, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 228 | 220-239 | 8 |
| April 25–27, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 40 | 40-64 | 4 |
| April 23–25, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 80 | 65-89 | 6 |
| April 17–24, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 204 | 200-219 | 66 |
| April 20–22, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 60 | 40-64 | 0 |
| April 18–20, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 46 | 40-64 | 3 |
| April 16–18, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 76 | 65-89 | 6 |
| April 10–17, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 307 | 300-319 | 7 |
| April 13–15, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 69 | 65-89 | 6 |
| April 7–14, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 299 | 280-299 | 7 |
| April 11–13, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 135 | 115-139 | 6 |
| April 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 67 | 65-89 | 5 |
| April 3–10, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 242 | 240-259 | 6 |
| April 6–8, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 81 | 65-89 | 6 |
| March 31 – April 7, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 277 | 260-279 | 56 |
| April 4–6, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 66 | 65-89 | 4 |
| April 2–4, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 98 | 90-114 | 6 |
| March 27 – April 3, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 278 | 260-279 | 160 |
| March 30 – April 1, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 99 | 90-114 | 7 |
| March 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 1329 | 1320-1359 | — |
| March 24–31, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 236 | 220-239 | 5 |
| March 28–30, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 60 | 40-64 | 4 |
| March 26–28, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 76 | 65-89 | 5 |
| March 20–27, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 269 | 260-279 | 10 |
| March 23–25, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 57 | 40-64 | 4 |
| March 17–24, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 367 | 360-379 | 7 |
| March 21–23, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 93 | 90-114 | 6 |
| March 19–21, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 115 | 115-139 | — |
| March 13–20, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 329 | 320-339 | 8 |
| March 16–18, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 96 | 90-114 | 6 |
| March 10–17, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 288 | 280-299 | 8 |
| March 14–16, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 42 | 40-64 | 4 |
| March 12–14, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 110 | 90-114 | 7 |
| March 6–13, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 379 | 360-379 | 198 |
| March 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 116 | 115-139 | 96 |
| March 10–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 40 | 40-49 | 5 |
| March 3–10, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 349 | 340-359 | 175 |
| March 7–9, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 100 | 90-114 | 98 |
| March 5–7, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 100 | 90-114 | 9 |
| February 27 – March 6, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 212 | 200-219 | 105 |
| March 2–4, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 39 | <40 | — |
| February 24 – March 3, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 211 | 200-219 | 15 |
| February 28 – March 2, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 52 | 40-64 | — |
| February 26–28, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 49 | 40-64 | 3 |
| February 20–27, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 314 | 300-319 | 126 |
| February 23–25, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 81 | 65-89 | 34 |
| February 17–24, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 367 | 360-379 | 65 |
| February 21–23, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 83 | 65-89 | 10 |
| February 19–21, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 122 | 115-139 | 8 |
| February 13–20, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 309 | 300-319 | 17 |
| February 16–18, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 106 | 90-114 | 7 |
| February 10–17, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 249 | 240-259 | 41 |
| February 14–16, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 78 | 65-89 | 7 |
| February 12–14, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 50 | 40-64 | 29 |
| February 6–13, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 368 | 360-379 | 64 |
| February 9–11, 2026 window | Elon Musk | 152 | 140-164 | 53 |
| February 3–10, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 365 | 360-379 | 119 |
Final count: the count the market resolved on; it falls inside the winning bucket. Max page lag: how far Polymarket's page trailed our count at its worst; red means 20 or more, "—" means we didn't record it. Latest window closed 2026-11-11. Data as of 2026-11-12; windows that closed after that date are not listed yet.
Windows without a confirmed result (3)
Our price data for these markets ends before any bucket reached 90¢, so we can't confirm which bucket won. The number shown is our own count, not a settled one.
| Window | Account | Our count |
|---|---|---|
| April 14–21, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 196 |
| February 2026 monthly | Elon Musk | 1250 |
| January 30 – February 6, 2026 weekly | Elon Musk | 284 |