Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · 2-day
Elon Musk posted 31 tweets from November 9–11, 2026.
On Polymarket, the <40 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.999 (99.9¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 31 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | <40 |
| Final YES price | $0.999 |
| Max page lag | 9 |
| Window | 2 days |
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 93 · high 159 · low 31 · -59 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–11, 2026 this market | 31 | <40 | -59 |
| November 7–9, 2026 | 90 | 90-114 | -14 |
| November 5–7, 2026 | 104 | 90-114 | +21 |
| November 2–4, 2026 | 83 | 65-89 | -11 |
| October 31 – November 2, 2026 | 94 | 90-114 | -65 |
| October 29–31, 2026 | 159 | 140-164 | +54 |
| October 26–28, 2026 | 105 | 90-114 | +21 |
| October 24–26, 2026 | 84 | 65-89 | -7 |
| October 22–24, 2026 | 91 | 90-114 | — |
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post from November 9–11, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 31 tweets from November 9–11, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for November 9–11, 2026?
The <40 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.999 (99.9¢ implied), and the settlement count of 31 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.