Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · weekly
Elon Musk posted 170 tweets from August 4–11, 2026.
On Polymarket, the 160-179 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.999 (99.9¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 170 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | 160-179 |
| Final YES price | $0.999 |
| Max page lag | 4 |
| Window | 7 days |
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 206 · high 281 · low 158 · -17 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 4–11, 2026 this market | 170 | 160-179 | -17 |
| July 31 – August 7, 2026 | 187 | 180-199 | -35 |
| July 28 – August 4, 2026 | 222 | 220-239 | -48 |
| July 24–31, 2026 | 270 | 260-279 | -11 |
| July 21–28, 2026 | 281 | 280-299 | +74 |
| July 17–24, 2026 | 207 | 200-219 | +49 |
| July 14–21, 2026 | 158 | 140-159 | -3 |
| July 10–17, 2026 | 161 | 160-179 | -35 |
| July 7–14, 2026 | 196 | 180-199 | — |
Weekly markets overlap, so these are successive windows, not calendar weeks.
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post the week of August 4, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 170 tweets from August 4–11, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for August 4–11, 2026?
The 160-179 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.999 (99.9¢ implied), and the settlement count of 170 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.