Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · 2-day
Elon Musk posted 34 tweets from August 15–17, 2026.
On Polymarket, the <40 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.998 (99.8¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 34 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | <40 |
| Final YES price | $0.998 |
| Max page lag | — |
| Window | 2 days |
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 50 · high 81 · low 34 · -23 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 15–17, 2026 this market | 34 | <40 | -23 |
| August 13–15, 2026 | 57 | 40-64 | +23 |
| August 10–12, 2026 | 34 | <40 | -9 |
| August 8–10, 2026 | 43 | 40-64 | -7 |
| August 6–8, 2026 | 50 | 40-64 | +5 |
| August 3–5, 2026 | 45 | 40-64 | +3 |
| August 1–3, 2026 | 42 | 40-64 | -39 |
| July 30 – August 1, 2026 | 81 | 65-89 | +16 |
| July 27–29, 2026 | 65 | 65-89 | — |
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post from August 15–17, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 34 tweets from August 15–17, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for August 15–17, 2026?
The <40 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.998 (99.8¢ implied), and the settlement count of 34 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.