Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · 2-day
Elon Musk posted 34 tweets from August 10–12, 2026.
On Polymarket, the <40 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.999 (99.9¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 34 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | <40 |
| Final YES price | $0.999 |
| Max page lag | 5 |
| Window | 2 days |
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 59 · high 112 · low 34 · -9 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 10–12, 2026 this market | 34 | <40 | -9 |
| August 8–10, 2026 | 43 | 40-64 | -7 |
| August 6–8, 2026 | 50 | 40-64 | +5 |
| August 3–5, 2026 | 45 | 40-64 | +3 |
| August 1–3, 2026 | 42 | 40-64 | -39 |
| July 30 – August 1, 2026 | 81 | 65-89 | +16 |
| July 27–29, 2026 | 65 | 65-89 | +6 |
| July 25–27, 2026 | 59 | 40-64 | -53 |
| July 23–25, 2026 | 112 | 90-114 | — |
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post from August 10–12, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 34 tweets from August 10–12, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for August 10–12, 2026?
The <40 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.999 (99.9¢ implied), and the settlement count of 34 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.