Resolved Polymarket market · Elon Musk · weekly
Elon Musk posted 212 tweets from September 29 – October 6, 2026.
On Polymarket, the 200-219 tweets bucket resolved YES at a final price of $0.972 (97.2¢ implied probability).
The market resolution
| Final count | 212 tweets |
|---|---|
| Winning bucket | 200-219 |
| Final YES price | $0.972 |
| Our own count | 221 tweets |
| Max page lag | 11 |
| Window | 7 days |
Our own count logged 221 tweets, a few above the settlement total. Gaps this small come from snapshot timing or from posts deleted before XTracker read them. The headline number matches the resolved bucket.
Count vs the prior 8 windows
Average 204 · high 227 · low 179 · -12 vs the previous window
| Window | Tweets | Winning bucket | vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 29 – October 6, 2026 this market | 212 | 200-219 | -12 |
| September 25 – October 2, 2026 | 224 | 220-239 | +42 |
| September 22–29, 2026 | 182 | 180-199 | -22 |
| September 18–25, 2026 | 204 | 200-219 | -23 |
| September 15–22, 2026 | 227 | 220-239 | +20 |
| September 11–18, 2026 | 207 | 200-219 | +17 |
| September 8–15, 2026 | 190 | 180-199 | +11 |
| September 4–11, 2026 | 179 | 160-179 | -34 |
| September 1–8, 2026 | 213 | 200-219 | — |
Weekly markets overlap, so these are successive windows, not calendar weeks.
FAQ
How many tweets did Elon Musk post the week of September 29, 2026?
Elon Musk posted 212 tweets from September 29 – October 6, 2026. That is the count Polystrike recorded over the exact window this Polymarket market covered, using the market's own settlement rules.
Which Polymarket bucket won for September 29 – October 6, 2026?
The 200-219 tweets bucket resolved YES. Its final price was $0.972 (97.2¢ implied), and the settlement count of 212 falls inside that range.
How does Polystrike count Elon Musk's tweets?
We poll X every second for @elonmusk and tally qualifying posts as they land, using the market's settlement rules: main-feed posts, quote posts, reposts, main-feed replies count; in-thread replies and community reposts don't. The headline number matches the bucket the market resolved to; where our own tally differed, both figures are shown above.