Resolved Polymarket markets
Polymarket tweet-count market history
Every resolved window we tracked: the final count, the bucket that won, and the largest gap we recorded between our count and Polymarket's page.
| Window | Account | Final count | Winning bucket | Max page lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 3–10, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 50 | 40-59 | 5 |
| October 30 – November 6, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 195 | 180-199 | 25 |
| October 27 – November 3, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 269 | 200+ | 22 |
| October 23–30, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 176 | 160-179 | 14 |
| October 20–27, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 158 | 140-159 | 14 |
| October 16–23, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 169 | 160-179 | 14 |
| October 13–20, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 159 | 140-159 | 15 |
| October 9–16, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 138 | 120-139 | 6 |
| October 6–13, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 151 | 140-159 | 37 |
| October 2–9, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 141 | 140-159 | 44 |
| September 29 – October 6, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 113 | 100-119 | 8 |
| September 25 – October 2, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 92 | 80-99 | 7 |
| September 22–29, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 95 | 80-99 | 6 |
| September 18–25, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 116 | 100-119 | 6 |
| September 15–22, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 101 | 100-119 | 6 |
| September 11–18, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 96 | 80-99 | 6 |
| September 8–15, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 133 | 120-139 | 28 |
| September 4–11, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 125 | 120-139 | 12 |
| September 1–8, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 127 | 120-139 | 5 |
| August 28 – September 4, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 147 | 140-159 | 6 |
| August 25 – September 1, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 169 | 160-179 | 46 |
| August 21–28, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 175 | 160-179 | 46 |
| August 18–25, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 156 | 140-159 | 7 |
| August 14–21, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 156 | 140-159 | 7 |
| August 11–18, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 170 | 160-179 | 12 |
| August 7–14, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 165 | 160-179 | 12 |
| August 4–11, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 162 | 160-179 | 9 |
| July 31 – August 7, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 141 | 140-159 | 9 |
| July 28 – August 4, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 131 | 120-139 | 7 |
| July 24–31, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 128 | 120-139 | 7 |
| July 21–28, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 93 | 80-99 | 4 |
| July 17–24, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 107 | 100-119 | 7 |
| July 14–21, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 107 | 100-119 | 8 |
| July 10–17, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 112 | 100-119 | 10 |
| July 7–14, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 148 | 140-159 | 10 |
| July 3–10, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 137 | 120-139 | 10 |
| June 30 – July 7, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 124 | 120-139 | 11 |
| June 26 – July 3, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 118 | 100-119 | 12 |
| June 23–30, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 81 | 80-99 | 6 |
| June 19–26, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 65 | 60-79 | 4 |
| June 16–23, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 84 | 80-99 | 3 |
| June 12–19, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 116 | 100-119 | 4 |
| June 9–16, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 96 | 80-99 | 5 |
| June 5–12, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 108 | 100-119 | 6 |
| June 2–9, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 129 | 120-139 | 7 |
| May 29 – June 5, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 108 | 100-119 | 6 |
| May 26 – June 2, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 139 | 120-139 | 6 |
| May 19–26, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 129 | 120-139 | 3 |
| May 15–22, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 152 | 140-159 | 5 |
| May 12–19, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 103 | 100-119 | 5 |
| May 8–15, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 106 | 100-119 | 6 |
| May 5–12, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 138 | 120-139 | 7 |
| May 1–8, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 182 | 180-199 | 10 |
Final count: the count the market resolved on; it falls inside the winning bucket. Max page lag: how far Polymarket's page trailed our count at its worst; red means 20 or more, "—" means we didn't record it. Latest window closed 2026-11-11. Data as of 2026-11-12; windows that closed after that date are not listed yet.
Windows without a confirmed result (13)
Our price data for these markets ends before any bucket reached 90¢, so we can't confirm which bucket won. The number shown is our own count, not a settled one.
| Window | Account | Our count |
|---|---|---|
| April 28 – May 5, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 161 |
| April 24 – May 1, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 80 |
| April 21–28, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 117 |
| April 17–24, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 160 |
| April 14–21, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 109 |
| April 10–17, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 93 |
| April 7–14, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 84 |
| April 3–10, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 68 |
| March 31 – April 7, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 61 |
| March 27 – April 3, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 87 |
| March 24–31, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 116 |
| March 20–27, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 128 |
| March 17–24, 2026 weekly | Ted Cruz | 97 |